Information obtained by Malawi News from five of the eight ADDs shows that the production is expected to nosedive to 33,000 metric tonnes from 67,098 metric tonnes last year according to Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) bulletin of July 2009.

The ADDs have attributed the development to poor prices and unreliable markets last year. This resulted from a decision by government to impose a K75/kg minimum price on cotton which forced some major international cotton buyers like Cargill to close shop in the country.

According to ADDs, the drop in the estimated production figures has been worsened by a dry spell that hit the country because the little cotton that some farmers grew withered leading to some ADDs like Shire Valley projecting a decrease of about 90 percent.

This comes at a time when Tobacco Control Commission (TCC), Chief Executive Officer, Bruce Munthali has also projected a 7.4 percent decrease in production of the major foreign exchange earner, tobacco, after concluding their second round of crop estimates.

Senior Economist for Shire Valley ADD Noel Nangwale said his division expects a drop in the production of major crops, mainly cotton, by an estimated 90 percent due to low acreage and the dry spell that hit the ADD when farmers had just planted their crops. Shire Valley is one of the major cotton growing ADDs in the country.

Salima ADD Acting Division Crops Officer, Andrew Sikwese said his division is expected to produce 3,932 metric tonnes of cotton from an area of only 3,570 hectares compared to 11,294 metric tonnes last year from a bigger area of 9,057 hectares representing a 65 percent decrease.

He said apart from the dry spell the production of cotton has been affected because very few farmers have grown cotton due to poor prices and unreliable market last year resulting in a decrease of 5,487 hectares of land.

Karonga District Agriculture Development Officer, Steve Sibande said cotton is expected to go down by 30 percent compared to last year, saying the figure might be higher after the second assessment because “very few farmers have grown cotton in the area this year”. The ADD has some of the major cotton growing districts in the country.

Programme Manager for Machinga ADD comprising Mangochi, Machinga, Zomba and Balaka, Getrude Kalinde Thaulo said her division is expected to register an average decrease of over 30 percent in the production of cotton because few farmers have grown the crop compared to last year.

“Acreage is very little compared to last year. It has gone down by about 20 to 30 percent. But despite the dry spell those who grew cotton have a very beautiful crop,” said Kalinde.

Kasungu ADD Division Crops Officer, Amos Banda said the division is expecting a 40 percent drop in the production of cotton because very few farmers have cultivated the cash crop.

“Acreage has been reduced due to poor market incentives,” Banda said.

Second Principal Secretary for Agriculture Erica Maganga could not provide the national projected figures for all crops including cotton when contacted this week because she said the ministry was still monitoring the situation and consolidating the figures which might be released in April.

“We will release them at the right time. We are still consolidating the figures. Once we complete the exercise we will be able to give you projected production figures for all crops. Possibly in April,” said Maganga.

Cotton suffered a heavy blow last year because most buyers refused to buy at a government recommended price which forced a United States based international company, Cargill, to close its operations in the country which led to 3,119 jobs being lost.

According to Cargill Malawi Country Manager, Frans Grey, the company also wrote off a K150million debt which they used to sponsor 86,000 farmers countrywide to grow cotton. They were supposed to recover the money when buying the crop from the farmers which they didn’t.

Grey said his company could not buy cotton last year because they could not afford to pay the recommended price.

Malawi Economic Justice Network (Mejn) a grouping of over 50 civil society organizations dealing on issues of economy described the development as a threat to the economy because it will lead into loss of revenue by government and the farmers themselves.

“People’s livelihoods will be affected because cotton is one of the few cash crops that are grown by households. At national level there will be loss of revenue since cotton is one of the major export crops that generates foreign exchange for the country,” said Mejn Executive Director Andrew Kumbatira.

Kumbatira, who is one of the few Malawians that have been entrusted by President Bingu wa Mutharika to advise him on issues of the economy under the newly-constituted advisory council, said government should find ways to avoid a repeat of what happened to the cotton industry last year.

“Government should also find mechanisms to make sure that the livelihoods of the concerned cotton farmers are not affected,” he said.

Malawi Export Promotion Council (Mepc) Commissioner General Rob Salama said unless the projected decrease in production leads to higher prices because of the demand, the development will result in low cotton exports and less foreign exchange earnings which he said is bad for the economy.

“If it’s true that production will go down it means exports will be reduced and foreign exchange will go down as well unless it means high prices because of demand,” said Salama who said his organization encourages farmers to add value to their products by processing it.

Donors mainly World Bank, Britain’s Department for International Development (DfID) and America’s Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) have said there was a breakdown in regulatory controls in Malawi cotton industry leading to increased risk on the part of investors.

The World Bank in its agribusiness report forming part of the 2009 Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), which is a joint initiative of the Bank and several other donors said minimum prices set by government threatened the viability of contract farming in cotton in particular.

Trade Minister Eunice Kazembe whose ministry is entrusted with the responsibility of wooing investors into the country told Malawi News recently that there was nothing wrong in government setting minimum prices for cotton to make sure that farmers were getting something out of their crop.

Kazembe said heavy subsidies towards western farmers had led to distortions in the cotton prices worldwide which attracted complaints from various countries because “support given to American farmers is too high leading to distortions in cotton prices”.

“Excessive US cotton subsidies cause over-production and depress world prices. Our farmers cannot get good prices and yet we are being castigated,” said Kazembe.

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